We all believed that a wager on current European champions Spain defeating minor tournament debutante Cape Verde in the 2026 World Cup was about as near as it gets, even though they say there is no such thing as a surefire bet.

Clearly in agreement, one Polymarket trader lumped $1 million on the result, presumably believing it would be the easiest $85,000 they had ever made, which would have been the anticipated payout had Spain fulfilled its obligations.

Cape Verde didn't read the script, which is unfortunate for the trader. The defiant islanders held the defending European champions to a 0-0 draw despite launching 27 efforts at their opponents' goal, seven of which were on target.

One of the most memorable moments of the tournament might be the tears that flowed down the face of Vozinha, the brave 40-year-old goalkeeper for Cape Verde, at the final whistle.

With a population of roughly 500,000, Cape Verde is an archipelagic nation off the coast of West Africa. Despite being one of the lowest-ranked teams in the competition, they played with discipline and bravery and were energetic and structured out of possession, which was a lot.

Not Even Close to the Biggest Shock

The Athletic wondered this morning if this was "the biggest shock of the World Cup."

It wasn't. That was most likely when North Korea defeated Italy 1-0 in 1966. or Argentina, the defending champions, losing to Cameroon in 1990. or Brazil's 7-1 defeat in the 2014 semifinals.

Not everyone was really surprised by the Cape Verde outcome. Because another Polymarket trader wagered on Spain to lose, turning $428,000 into $4.7 million. A tie is compared to kissing your sister, so the saying goes. Try telling that guy.

Why would somebody risk $428,000 on something that seems so unlikely to occur, at least on the surface?

Was the Price of the Game Incorrect?

The most likely explanation is that the trader thought the odds, which were 9% at the time of the trade, were incorrect. Expert traders and gamblers search for odds they think are undervalued. Even while it seems foolish to risk $428,000 on Spain losing, people with sizable portfolios frequently distribute risk across several markets and take hedge bets elsewhere.

It's possible that what looked like a moonshot was only one part of a larger plan. It was a "good" wager if they thought the odds of Spain losing were higher than 9%.

The trader may have had a greater grasp than the rest of the market of Cape Verde’s defending capabilities, and of Spain’s occasional tendency of starting a tournament slowly.

For instance, Spain lost its opening match 1-0 to Switzerland in 2010 while still the defending European champions, but they went on to defeat all opponents and win the World Cup title for the first and only time to date.

Despite the setback, most conventional sportsbooks still rank Spain and France as co-favorites to win the World Cup at +600 (6/1), however Polymarket currently favors France by 17% to Spain's 14%.

Cape Verde is +10,0000 (1,000/1) to win the trophy despite their heroics.